Bitcoin Smashes 50‑Week Barrier—Bottom In or Another Fakeout?
Bitcoin just closed a week above its 50‑week moving average for the first time in more than 10 months, according to TradingView figures cited in the source. The weekly finish on Coinbase was reported at $81,159, clearing the 50‑week average near $78,788. TradingView data also showed it was Bitcoin’s highest weekly close in four months.
Why this level matters
In August, Galaxy Research’s head of firmwide research Alex Thorn described the 50‑week moving average as a ceiling during bear markets. In a research note, he wrote: “In four of the five completed bear markets, once the 50‑week moving average was first broken to the upside, the bear market bottom was definitively ‘in.’ Essentially, retaking the 50w MA has previously confirmed the end of a bear market.”
Galaxy also cautioned that the signal isn’t perfect. Of 13 weekly crossings back above the 50‑week moving average, two were followed by a lower low, both in the 2021–2022 bear market, per the source’s summary of Galaxy’s analysis.
Momentum vs. confirmation
Before the close, Collective Shift founder Ben Simpson said a weekly finish above the 50‑week average would be “the last thing I need to see before I call this a bull market,” adding that Bitcoin gained between 700% and 900% after similar breaks in 2017, 2020, and 2023. These remarks were cited in the source.
Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee told Cointelegraph the latest close “added weight” to a recovery case but said one weekly candle is not enough to call a cycle bottom. Lee said the key will be whether Bitcoin can hold above the 50‑week average and keep forming higher lows, noting there have been failed reclaims in tougher macro backdrops. He added that conditions look stronger than earlier this year, pointing to a rebound from July lows around $57,000, leverage being cleared by repeated liquidations, and signs of returning institutional demand, according to Cointelegraph’s reporting cited by the source.
Another trigger: $83K and the quarterly setup
Separately, crypto trader Craig Cobb told Cointelegraph the 50‑week average is not his trigger. He’s watching $83,000 to avoid a lower high on Bitcoin’s monthly chart and end the downtrend under his framework. Cobb also cited a three‑month (quarterly) pattern: after a succession of red quarterly candles ends with a green one, a subsequent break above that green candle’s high has, in 11 of 15 historical instances, eventually led to a new all‑time high. “So combine $83,000 being broken and the close of the September three‑month candle, then a break of the high and I will say the bull market has begun,” Cobb said, per Cointelegraph.
What to watch next
Analysts cited by Cointelegraph and Galaxy frame this week’s move as a constructive signal with historical tailwinds—but not a standalone confirmation. The focus now is whether BTC can hold above the 50‑week average and establish higher lows, or repeat past failed reclaims.