Markets Priced Dana White Near Zero—Trump: “I Was Kidding”
Kalshi and Polymarket traders kept Dana White’s chances of becoming Donald Trump’s next press secretary at low, single-digit prices through the weekend. On Sunday night, Trump told reporters he had been “only kidding” about offering White the job, according to NBC News.
Trump’s Offer, Then a Walk-Back
“I am pleased to announce that the great Dana White, a violent fighter and warrior, has been offered the job of Press Secretary of the United States,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Saturday, asking White to bring several UFC fighters as “assistants” to defend against the “Lunatic Left,” per the source text. CNN reported Saturday, citing a source familiar with the matter, that White had declined the offer.
On Sunday evening U.S. time, Trump said he had been joking. “I was only kidding, but Dana loves the idea,” he told reporters in Palm Beach, Florida, according to NBC News. He added that a planned Monday meeting with White was still on, but “for other reasons,” NBC News reported.
Kalshi: Pennies After a Brief Spike
Kalshi added a Dana White contract to its “next press secretary” market at 19:12 UTC on Saturday. The first 13 minutes were thin and volatile—from 3 to 58 cents, including 142 contracts as high as 58 cents around 19:19 UTC—but the price was back to 18 cents by 19:22 UTC and 7 cents by 19:35 UTC, per the source’s review of trade data.
For the rest of Saturday, the contract ranged between 1 and 18 cents, with brief blips to 18 cents at about 20:57 UTC and 16 cents at 21:40 UTC before sliding back to single digits. On Sunday it hovered around 4–6 cents, then dropped to 1–2 cents between 23:24 and 23:27 UTC—around the time Trump said he had been joking—per the source text. Roughly 3.16 million contracts traded, about 94% of them under 10 cents, according to the same review.
Kalshi also listed side markets, per the source: a contract on whether White would publicly decline the job before Nov. 8 settled “No”; another market with a Nov. 10 deadline traded at 32 cents on Monday; and a market on whether White would visit the White House before Nov. 10 stood at 80 cents.
Polymarket: “No” Flow Dominated
Polymarket opened a Dana White contract in its “next press secretary” event at 19:41 UTC on Saturday, with the first trade at 19:44 UTC. The high print was 15 cents at 20:26 UTC; it traded near 5 cents on Sunday and around 2 cents on Monday, per the source text. The contract resolves “Yes” only if the White House announces White has been picked.
About $70,000 traded in 398 transactions. Seven of the eight largest trades were buys of “No” shares, led by a $7,732 purchase at nearly 99 cents at 01:54 UTC on Monday, according to the source’s account.
Who’s in Front Now?
As of Monday in the source’s timeframe, neither platform had a clear favorite. On Kalshi, Danielle Alvarez and Anna Kelly led at 17 and 16 cents, while on Polymarket, Kelly was in front at 13 cents, per the source text.
Prior Scrutiny
The source text also noted prior regulatory attention on White House–related wagering: a former White House teleprompter operator was ordered to pay $172,539 over Kalshi bets on Trump’s speeches.