Bloomberg’s $10K Bitcoin Warning Collides With CryptoQuant’s $30K Floor

Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone and CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju are miles apart on where Bitcoin could bottom next. McGlone said Bitcoin could revisit $10,000 if U.S. stocks sink 20%. Ju countered that exchange‑traded fund inflows and on‑chain metrics point to a floor near $30,000.

McGlone’s “dominoes” path to $10K

In an X post previewing a Bloomberg Intelligence note titled “A Bitcoin $10,000 Reversion Path Could Trigger Tumbling Dominoes,” McGlone wrote: “I see Bitcoin on track toward support around $10,000, notably if the US stock market has a 20% drawdown.” He also shared a chart arguing Bitcoin’s 50‑week moving average is trending down “akin to 2022‑23.” In a separate comment, he suggested a U.S. 5‑year Treasury yield near 5% may be “too much” competition for non‑income‑producing assets such as Bitcoin and gold.

The piece added that McGlone has made similar warnings before, telling a podcast in April, “I see a hurricane coming in,” and saying Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 this year (while adding that holding above $75,000 would prove him wrong). When on‑chain analyst Willy Woo pushed back, McGlone replied, “check in a year from now,” according to the source.

CryptoQuant’s rebuttal: ETFs and MVRV set a $30K floor

Ju, the CEO of on‑chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, directly disputed McGlone’s call. He pointed to $58 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and 1.3 million BTC held by treasury companies, arguing that on‑chain cost basis still places the floor near $30,000 even if that capital exits. Ju also leaned on MVRV (market value to realized value), noting that a $10,000 Bitcoin would imply an MVRV of 0.2, while “the worst bottom in the asset’s history” was about 0.6. “You would need 2019 buyers to panic, and they have already survived two 75% crashes,” Ju wrote.

Ju further claimed that a chart McGlone shared plots Bitcoin divided by 10, so the “10,000” axis level corresponds to $100,000. He also said McGlone “has been calling for a return to $10,000 since 2023 and repeated it in June and August this year.”

Fidelity’s third lane: a new 4‑year cycle?

Fidelity’s director of global macro Jurrien Timmer offered a separate view: “A new 4‑year cycle bull market could be underway, based on its power law patterns. There doesn’t seem to be a narrative, but then again, bull markets rarely start with one.” In his accompanying chart (data as of Oct. 11), Timmer marked power‑law support around $56,488 and the last cycle peak at $122,765 (weekly). Bitcoin sat at $82,976 at that data cut—about 47% above the support level—per the chart.

What could trigger the next move

The source framed McGlone’s stock‑market trigger as the key near‑term watch item. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 2.5% on a recent Friday and sat 6.5% below its Oct. 6 high—still well short of a 20% drawdown. Separately, Bitcoin.com News reported that Glassnode sees Bitcoin’s “$80K safety net” eroding, while Michael Saylor argued “the bottom is in.” The source also said prediction markets assign just a 27% chance to a return to the $100,000 range.

Bitcoin dipped below $81,000 on Oct. 16 amid heightened volatility, according to the source.