Bitcoin’s Bear Market Broke a Key Pattern: The June Low Never Crossed This Cost-Basis Line

Bitcoin’s current bear-market phase has not followed one of the harshest patterns seen in earlier downturns, according to Glassnode data cited by CryptoNews.

The report said Bitcoin did not post a daily close below its realized price during the current cycle. That matters because realized price is often used as a broad measure of the market’s aggregate cost basis. In simpler terms, it helps show whether the average holder, as a group, is underwater.

In the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 bear markets, Bitcoin traded below realized price for months. This time, the June 2026 low stayed above that line on a closing basis, according to the cited data.

The $77,000 level now carries the burden

CryptoNews reported that if Bitcoin remains above the True Market Mean near $77,000, the June low would rank as the shallowest bear-market bottom in Glassnode’s comparison set going back to 2017.

That does not remove downside risk. It means the drawdown has not produced the same aggregate cost-basis damage seen in earlier cycles.

The report also cited Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL, which stayed positive throughout the cycle. In 2018 and 2022, that metric moved deep into negative territory as the market shifted into aggregate paper losses.

Glassnode data also showed Percent Supply in Profit falling to roughly the same level at the June low as it did at the November 2022 bottom. The distinction, according to the report, is that the overall magnitude of unrealized losses was smaller this time.

Resistance sits just above the market

Several price zones are now central to the thesis.

Bitcoin was reported to be trading above both the True Market Mean near $77,000 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, levels that had capped rallies for much of 2026. The largest nearby long-term-holder supply cluster was identified around $84,000 to $85,000, while the next major resistance was placed at the mean MVRV price near $96,700.

Deribit options positioning also appears to matter. The report cited positive gamma building near $95,000 and negative gamma between spot price and $92,000. In practical terms, that setup can mean dealer hedging accelerates moves in the lower band while potentially slowing price action as Bitcoin approaches the upper zone.

According to the analysis, holding above $84,000 keeps a move toward $96,700 in view. A move below $84,000 would bring $77,000 back into focus, while a break below $77,000 would weaken the shallow-bear-market interpretation.

ETF flows and volume have turned, but not fully recovered

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $1.3 billion across the five trading days after the current squeeze began, following two weeks of net outflows, according to Glassnode data cited by CryptoNews. The most recent day in that stretch was described as the largest single inflow since early July.

The report framed that as a meaningful reversal and noted that an institutional bid of this kind was not present during the 2018 or 2022 downturns. It also cautioned that Federal Reserve policy shifts could still affect those flows in either direction.

Spot volume across exchanges has more than doubled from its August trough, rising 121% since the rally began. CryptoNews noted that prior volume expansions from late 2025 through mid-2026 occurred during selloffs, while the August move was the first spike in a year to coincide with rising Bitcoin prices.

Still, the seven-day average volume remained roughly 30% below year-ago levels. That suggests a recovery from depressed conditions rather than a full return to 2025 market activity.

The bullish signal — and the warning sign

The bullish interpretation is that profit-taking has remained limited. Weekly realized profits during the latest run were reported to be far below the levels seen near the 2024 and 2025 tops, even as nearly all short-term holders moved into profit.

If realized profits begin rising toward those prior peak levels, the report said it would be an early sign that recent buyers are using the rally to exit. Until then, the case for a less damaging bear-market structure depends heavily on Bitcoin defending the key support levels now underneath it.