$121M to $4M: XRP ETF inflows plunge as $1.32 looms
About a 7% weekly drop and a failed push through $1.60 have traders watching whether XRP can stabilize near $1.32, according to an analysis that also flags sharply slower ETF demand.
ETF flows cool sharply
XRP-linked exchange-traded funds took in $121.4 million of net inflows in September, but only about $4 million so far in October, per SoSoValue figures cited in the analysis. At that pace, the report estimates October could total roughly $17 million, though it notes the final number depends on demand over the remaining sessions. The analysis argues slower ETF buying removes a source of support even as cumulative October flows remain positive.
On-chain signals: more coins hitting exchanges
The analysis says on-chain data shows XRP transfers to exchanges have accelerated over the past two weeks, reaching their highest level since July 2026. It notes a prior pickup in exchange inflows coincided with a price move from approximately $1.14 to $1.00. While deposits can precede selling, the report cautions they can also reflect trading, collateral, or other uses rather than confirmed sales.
Sentiment and macro notes
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has eased from 80 to 58, the analysis says, alongside broader market cooling after recent gains. The report also contends the macro backdrop has modestly improved, citing Federal Reserve minutes that, in its view, left expectations for any next rate increase pushed to at least December, and pointing to softer-than-expected August PCE inflation. Nonetheless, it adds, later-rate-hike expectations have not halted near-term profit-taking across crypto.
Levels to watch
On the daily chart, the analysis places XRP near its 200-day exponential moving average and highlights roughly $1.32 as a potential rebound area. If selling accelerates, it identifies next support near $1.26. Momentum has weakened, with the Relative Strength Index approaching 40, suggesting sellers hold a near-term edge, according to the report. The analysis still keeps a medium-term $1.80 objective in view, contingent on renewed demand and a sustained move back through $1.60.
Volume and context
Trading activity remains elevated at around $3 billion—nearly 4% of XRP’s circulating market capitalization—while the analysis frames the pullback as part of broader crypto softness and cooling sentiment after the latest advance.