Cardano risks dropping to $0.32 as bearish trend thickens

Key takeaways

ADA has lost 7% of its value in the last seven days.
The coin could record further losses as the market remains bearish.

ADA sheds 35% in November

ADA, the native coin of the Cardano blockchain, is up by less than 1% on Tuesday after recovering from the 6% dip on Monday. The bearish performance occurred as the  Cardano derivatives market saw a decline in traders’ interest.

According to CoinGlass, ADA futures Open Interest (OI) dropped 6.82% over the last 24 hours to $693 million. This decline suggests that investors are adopting a risk-off approach to the market.

Furthermore, the OI-weighted funding rate stands at -0.0057% suggesting increased confidence among bearish-aligned traders. Due to the current market conditions, the long-to-short ratio stands at 0.8765, with short positions building to 53.29% of all derivatives contracts over the last 24 hours.

This data suggests that there is a sell-side dominance in Cardano derivatives, with traders anticipating a decline in ADA’s price in the near term.

Will ADA close below the 2025 low?

The ADA/USD daily chart is bearish and inefficient as Cardano has underperformed in recent weeks. The coin dropped below $0.40 after losing 35% of its value in November and could dip lower over the coming days and weeks. 

The technical indicators are also bearish, with the daily RSI now at 28, indicating an oversold condition. The MACD lines are also within the negative territory, suggesting heavy selling pressure. If the RSI remains below 30, Cardano remains at risk of steeper corrections. 

If the daily candle closes below the November 21 low of $0.3876, ADA could suffer heavy losses and retest the September 16, 2024, low of $0.3264. On the upside, if the buyers regain control and ADA stays bullish above $0.3876, it could reclaim the $0.40 resistance level in the near term.