Bitcoin was the first asset to price the Iran war because it was the only liquid market open when U.S. and Israel first launched their attack on a Saturday, a few weeks ago.

It dropped 8.5% that day. Two weeks later, it has outperformed gold, the S&P 500, Asian equities, and the Korean stock market. Only oil and the dollar have done better, and both are direct beneficiaries of the conflict itself.

Bitcoin’s safe-haven status — a notion that was contested amid late last year’s price lull — seems to be back in investors’ minds. On top of that, it’s acting like the fastest shock absorber in global markets as escalations are getting bigger while drawdowns are getting smaller.

The pattern becomes clearer when looking at where bitcoin found buyers after each sell-off.

On Feb. 28, the day of the initial strikes, it bottomed at $64,000. On March 2, after Iran’s retaliatory missiles hit Gulf states, the floor was $66,000. By March 7, after a week of sustained conflict, the low was $68,000. After the tanker attacks on March 12, it held $69,400. And after Kharg Island on Saturday, the low was $70,596.

In simpler terms, each selloff finds buyers at a higher level than the last.

The trendline of higher lows has been rising by roughly $1,000-$2,000 per event, compressing the range from below, while $73,000-$74,000 holds as a ceiling that has now rejected bitcoin four times.

That compression has to resolve eventually. Either the floor catches the ceiling and bitcoin breaks above $74,000 on the next attempt, or the pattern breaks, and a larger escalation finally overwhelms the buying.

Holding strong

The most striking part is what bitcoin has done relative to other assets over the same two weeks.

Oil is up more than 40% since the war began, as the chart below shows. The S&P 500 is down. Gold has been volatile in both directions. Asian equities had their worst week since March 2020.

All this doesn’t mean bitcoin is suddenly a safe haven, however, as it still sells on every headline. But it recovers faster each time, and each recovery holds at a higher level.

The contrast with earlier this year is sharp. In early February, a sudden liquidation cascade wiped out $2.5 billion in leveraged positions over a single weekend as bitcoin plunged to $77,000, erasing roughly $800 billion in market value from its October peak.

That episode looked like the kind of event that could break market confidence for months. Instead, it appears to have cleared out the weakest hands and reset positioning, leaving a leaner market that has absorbed every war headline since without repeating that kind of forced selling.

The macro overlay adds context, meanwhile. Trump said late Friday he spared oil infrastructure on Iran’s oil-producing Kharg Island “for reasons of decency” but would “immediately reconsider” if Iran kept blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded that any strike on energy infrastructure would trigger retaliatory attacks on U.S.-linked facilities.

That conditional threat is new, and if it materializes, the supply disruption the IEA already called the largest in history will get dramatically worse.

But bitcoin’s adaptation to the war tells traders something about what this market has become.

It’s not a haven and not purely a risk asset. It has become a 24/7 liquidity pool that absorbs shocks faster than anything else because it’s the only thing trading when the shocks arrive.

ADA traded near $0.26 as bulls looked to break above a key resistance line.
Open interest hovered around $414 million, sharply down over the past month.
ADA price could drop to $0.22 or lower if bears strengthen.

Cardano’s ADA remains under pressure as buyers struggle to regain momentum, with the token retreating from a key technical resistance level near $0.26.

The cryptocurrency is now down more than 20% year to date.

The decline has also pushed Cardano out of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation, after Hyperliquid (HYPE) climbed to around $38 and moved into the 10th position on CoinMarketCap.

As of March 12, 2026, Hyperliquid’s market capitalisation stood at about $9.6 billion, slightly ahead of Cardano’s $9.4 billion.

The ranking shift could reverse if a potential recovery driven by bullish network-related developments supports ADA’s price.

Otherwise, the prevailing downtrend could push the altcoin toward new multi-month lows.

Cardano open interest falls to $414 million

Cardano’s ADA has trended lower since reaching a peak of $1.01 in August 2025, with derivatives market data reflecting the weakening momentum.

Over the past several months, Cardano’s open interest has declined sharply from about $1.87 billion when the token rallied above $1.

By October 2025, open interest in outstanding ADA futures contracts had fallen to roughly $1.5 billion, before dropping further to around $842 million by mid-January 2026.

The metric now stands at approximately $414 million as of March 12, 2026.

Open interest typically falls as leveraged positions unwind, indicating reduced participation from speculative traders.

The decline of more than 50% from January levels suggests that confidence in ADA’s near-term price outlook has weakened, aligning with the token’s broader bearish trend.

ADA price outlook: bulls face downtrend risk

Cardano price hovers near the resistance line of a parallel channel formed since Feb. 26.

Prices slipped below $0.27 earlier this month amid comments from founder Charles Hoskinson.

From a technical analysis point of view, a breakout looks likely as bulls hold onto support near the trendline.

However, sellers have shown conviction, keeping ADA within a channel formation in place since October 2025.

In terms of the short-term outlook, momentum indicators on the daily chart reinforce the downward risk.

As can be seen below, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals weakness under the 50 mark, while the MACD also suggests buyers’ indecision could play into bears’ hands.

Meanwhile, the 50 and 100-day SMAs indicate downward strength.

Cardano’s price is down more than 20% YTD and 70% in the past six months.

This means that failure to strengthen its recovery could risk ADA plunging to year-to-date lows of $0.22.

If price breaks below this level, ADA could face a deeper bearish setup.

However, if gains across crypto and network-related developments boost a fresh uptick, it could invalidate this outlook.

Breaking above the downtrend line and closing above $0.28 would embolden buyers, with key targets at $0.30 and $0.33.

Even then, bulls may need to reclaim $0.45 as support to retake control.

Bitcoin (BTC) gets a bad name among some investors due to its steep double-digit drawdowns that punish late buyers, but data suggests the outcome can change with time.

Since 2017, investors who bought BTC near the market highs faced losses of about 40%–50% in the next two years, but data shows many of those positions turned profitable when held for longer than three years.

By contrast, entries near bear-market lows have historically produced triple-digit percentage returns over similar two to three-year periods. Onchain valuation metrics further help explain where these stronger accumulation zones tend to appear.

Bitcoin cycle data reveals how entry timing affects gains

Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-term performance appears volatile across the shorter two-year holding period. The cycle comparisons show a massive change when the positions extend to three years.

Investors who bought near the 2017 market peak faced a 48.6% loss after two years during the 2018 bear market. Extending the holding period to three years turned that position into a 108.7% gain.

A similar trajectory appeared in the next market cycle. Buyers entering near the 2021 high recorded losses of 43.5% after two years. By the third year, the same entry produced a 14.5% profit.

The entries near bear-market lows generated far larger gains. Buying close to the 2019 bottom produced returns of 871% after two years and 1,028% after three years.

The 2022 cycle low followed a comparable path. Buy positions initiated near that period generated roughly 465% returns after two years and about 429% after three years.

Together, the data highlighted a consistent pattern. Two-year windows expose investors to large drawdowns when entries occur near cycle highs. Three-year holding periods historically move most entries into positive territory, while bottom entries capture the strongest price expansion in both holding periods.

Related: These 4 Bitcoin charts say BTC price is forming a bottom

BTC realized price zones guide bottom entries

BTC’s onchain valuation metrics help identify where these bottom entries have historically occurred.

Bitcoin’s realized price measures the average acquisition price of coins based on their last onchain movement. Deeper drawdowns frequently extend toward the shifted realized price, which smooths the metric forward and highlights the stronger value zones.

These bands have identified long-term accumulation ranges since 2015. Bitcoin’s realized price currently sits near $55,000, while the shifted realized price is around $42,000.

Since 2015, Bitcoin’s realized price bands have repeatedly coincided with the cycle lows, with the price recoveries from these zones initiating multi-year rallies.

The behavior connects closely with the earlier return data. Investors who accumulated near bear-market lows typically entered while the price traded around or below these valuation bands.

Institutional research also highlighted the role of longer holding periods. Bitwise chief information officer Matt Hougan cited a study showing that adding Bitcoin to a traditional 60/40 portfolio increased cumulative and risk-adjusted returns in every three-year period studied. The win rate is 93% across two-year periods, with a roughly 5% allocation producing the strongest balance.

A separate Bitwise review of Bitcoin data from July 2010 through February 2026 showed the probability of loss falls to 0.7% when BTC is held for three years. The risk drops to 0.2% over five years and reaches zero across ten-year holding periods.

The shorter horizons carry more uncertainty. Day traders historically faced a 47.1% chance of losses, while the one-year holding periods still showed a 24.3% probability of being underwater.

Related: Bitcoin bears ‘annihilated’ as analysis sees $65K support test next

Cardano (ADA) is now accepted at 137 Swiss SPAR stores via direct wallet payments.
ADA’s price remains stagnant near $0.272 despite retail adoption.
The key levels to watch are the $0.28 resistance and the $0.26 support.

The price of Cardano’s ADA token has remained unmoved even after 137 SPAR supermarkets across Switzerland announced they now accept Cardano (ADA) as a payment method, giving the cryptocurrency a new real-world utility.

The integration, powered by a payment system that connects Cardano’s blockchain to everyday retail checkouts, allows SPAR customers to pay directly from their wallets, without converting to traditional currencies.

You can now pay with $ADA at 137 SPAR stores across Switzerland.

In partnership with @DFX_swiss and @BrickTowers, we are helping bring blockchain into everyday commerce through real-time, low-cost retail payments.

Read the full press release: https://t.co/gvYRHclp4F

— Cardano Foundation (@Cardano_CF) March 5, 2026

Cardano’s ADA token remains unmoved

This move marks a significant step toward mainstream adoption of ADA.

For many cryptocurrencies, being used in everyday retail has been a distant goal, and Cardano now joins a small group of digital assets being used at physical stores.

However, despite this positive development, ADA’s market performance has remained relatively stagnant.

At press time, the cryptocurrency was trading around $0.272, down 1.3% over the last 24 hours.

Cardano price technical analysis

From a technical standpoint, momentum indicators provide a mixed picture.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recovering from oversold territory but remains below neutral, suggesting buyers have yet to assert dominance.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator readings are flat, signalling a lack of strong bullish or bearish momentum.

Derivatives markets indicate a cautious stance, with long-to-short ratios below one and declining futures participation, hinting that traders are leaning toward a defensive approach rather than aggressive buying.

On-chain activity also shows more coins are being moved, a signal that holders may be redistributing or taking profits.

Combined with modest daily losses, this data suggests that ADA’s recent rebound is not yet convincing enough to trigger a larger market rally.

ADA price forecast

While Cardano’s integration into 137 Swiss SPAR stores is a landmark moment for adoption, the market has yet to respond.

Technical levels suggest that ADA remains range-bound, and traders should be looking for decisive moves either above the immediate resistance or below the immediate support to determine the next trend.

Notably, a descending trendline has been forming, with $0.28 currently acting as the immediate resistance point.

Therefore, a breakout above this level with sustained volume could open the path toward $0.32, where stronger resistance aligns with clustered moving averages.

On the downside, a clear break under $0.26 could bring the $0.24 level into play.

Falling below that could accelerate selling and bring prices closer to $0.21, echoing recent technical warnings about potential downside.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) price has risen almost 31% since Feb. 24, then gave up some of its gains. At press time, the token traded near $32, up roughly 4.5% on the day and approximately 20% over the past seven days. Over the past 30 days, the HYPE price has remained in positive territory, up around 5%, while most top cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, XRP, and Solana, have posted losses over the same period.

The rally ties into a structural shift: Hyperliquid is becoming the go-to venue for trading traditional financial assets like oil, gold, and stocks around the clock, and every one of those trades feeds directly into the token’s deflationary burn engine. Meanwhile, smart money wallets are overwhelmingly long on HYPE itself, even as retail positions lean short.

Hyperliquid Removes TradFi’s Biggest Bottleneck

Traditional financial markets close on weekends and after hours. Hyperliquid does not. Traders can trade oil, gold, silver, and even stocks like NVIDIA on Hyperliquid using perpetual futures: 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, with sizeable leverage. That edge became impossible to ignore during the March 1–2 weekend.

Platform volume jumped to over $6.4 billion on Sunday alone.

When the US struck Iran, commodity markets were shut.

Gold traders had nowhere to go. Oil traders had nowhere to go.

Hyperliquid did $6.4 billion in volume on a Sunday.

Decentralized finance doesn’t close for war.

That used to be a talking point. Now it’s proven… pic.twitter.com/egeNdKcpKA

— The DeFi Doctor (@the_defidoctor) March 3, 2026

Oil perpetuals on Hyperliquid reportedly surged nearly 20%. Open interest for commodities-focused derivatives allegedly reached an all-time high above $1.1 billion.

tradfi is closed. bombs are dropping. oil is about to gap up. gold just hit $5,300and Hyperliquid just did $4.4B in weekend volume on HIP-3 markets this month alone

OI broke $1.1B overnight. new all-time high. previous record was $1.06B from two weeks ago

silver perps. gold…

— Kenshin.hl (@ogBattosai) March 3, 2026

This was not a one-off spike.

According to Delphi Digital, tokenized TradFi assets hit 31.6% of all Hyperliquid trading volume in late January — up from under 5% just a month earlier. Metals, equity indices, and individual stocks possibly drove the rotation.

In Late January, tokenized TradFi hit 31.6% of all Hyperliquid volume.

A month earlier it sat under 5%.

Since late December, TradFi’s 7-day average share climbed from 4.5% to over 20%.

Hyperliquid recorded $261.8 billion in total volume over the period with a growing slice… pic.twitter.com/mEvEdq8xFy

— Delphi Digital (@Delphi_Digital) February 20, 2026

On-chain data from Lookonchain showed one whale depositing $7.35 million in USDC into Hyperliquid to long NVDA and SNDK stocks; holding over $11.94 million in NVDA and $2 million in SNDK with additional limit orders worth $4.53 million pending. This happened right before NVIDIA announced the Q4 results.

Integrations have further accelerated this adoption.

Ripple Prime, launched in early February, gives institutions access to Hyperliquid on-chain perpetuals through a traditional prime brokerage wrapper.

Spot on! Ripple Prime integrating Hyperliquid is a game-changer for bridging TradFi and DeFi—finally giving institutions seamless access to crypto derivatives without the usual headaches. This could skyrocket XRPL’s role in global finance. How do you see this impacting XRP’s…

— BIZ (@Biz3215) February 9, 2026

Trojan (formerly Unibot) integrated non-custodial bot trading of real TradFi assets, including TSLA, AMZN, GOOGL, gold, and silver, directly on Hyperliquid’s orderbook.

And on Feb. 24, CoinShares launched a physically backed HYPE staking ETP (ticker: LIQD) on the Xetra exchange — the first regulated product giving traditional finance investors direct exposure to HYPE with staking yield. So the TradFi to crypto link now seems to be working both ways.

BIG NEWS: CoinShares just launched the **CoinShares Physical Hyperliquid Staking ETP**! 100% physically backed exposure to $HYPE (Hyperliquid’s native token) 0% management fee 0.5% annual staking yield Listed on Xetra (ticker: LIQD)

Institutional-grade… pic.twitter.com/kfHtTn9KoF

— JOVY (@Jovy_246) February 24, 2026

The volume surge, mentioned earlier, matters for HYPE price because of a direct mechanical link — and that is where the burn flywheel comes in.

Every Oil, Gold, and Stock Trade on Burns Tokens Permanently

Approximately 97% of all core trading fees on Hyperliquid flow into the Assistance Fund: a system address that automatically buys HYPE on the open market and permanently burns the purchased tokens.

HyperEVM gas fees are also burned. This is not a governance vote or a manual marketing event. It is code-enforced, on-chain, and happens with every single trade; whether that trade is a Bitcoin perpetual, an oil future during a geopolitical crisis, or a leveraged NVIDIA position from a whale wallet.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

100% agree — not retarded, just math. 97% of fees straight to $HYPE buybacks via Assistance Fund + HIP-3 permissionless perps launching more markets = insane revenue flywheel. Sitting at ~$33 with $1B+ annualized rev feels criminal.

— HyperliquidLab (@Hyperliquid_Lab) March 3, 2026

Recent on-chain data showed the platform generated $2.74 million in 24-hour fees, $16.96 million over seven days, and approximately $9.22 million worth of HYPE burned last week — up over 20% week-over-week.

On the supply side, only about 26,790 HYPE are minted daily as staking rewards. Recent daily burn figures have exceeded 48,000 HYPE, resulting in a net removal of over 17,000 tokens per day. Burns are currently running 1.8 to 2.3 times faster than emissions.

$HYPE deflation looks like this:

> 48,978 burned in 1 day> 26,790 given to stakers and validators> total: -22,188 out of circulation forever

and that’s just from buybacks

Each new HIP-3 Provider adds another 500,000 to the lockup

The more activity, the less supply. The… https://t.co/09zKH5Ya7N pic.twitter.com/RYHMMQLID8

— vanvster (@vanvster) March 2, 2026

That makes HYPE structurally net deflationary at current volume levels, even after accounting for the scheduled March 6 unlock of roughly 9.92 million HYPE for core contributors.

The flywheel is straightforward. More traders using Hyperliquid to trade oil, gold, stocks, and commodities around the clock generate higher fees. Higher fees mean more HYPE bought from the market and burned. More burning means a shrinking supply. And shrinking supply, combined with rising demand, creates price support, which is exactly what smart money appears to be positioning for.

Smart Money Goes All In While Retail Bets Against

On-chain positioning data on HYPE itself reveals a sharp divide between smart money and retail.

According to Nansen AI, overall sentiment on HYPE among tracked smart money wallets reads “strongly bullish.”

Named participants include Arrington XRP Capital with a $286,000 long entered near $31. Another one is Selini Capital with roughly $500,000 in combined longs across multiple wallets. Plus, there are several tracked smart Hyperliquid perps traders with entries ranging from $25 to $31 — all sitting on unrealized profits at press time.

Looking at the past week leaderboard for Smart Money funds on Hyperliquid perps

Manifold Trading led with $585K in PnL

But zoom out over 30D, things change.

Galaxy Digital crushed it with $31.99M

Selini Capital continued to dominate both views, with 9+ wallets across 30D and… pic.twitter.com/7YR2KfH2Vb

— Nansen (@nansen_ai) February 13, 2026

Retail, however, is positioned in the opposite direction, especially in the broader timeframe. The Bybit HYPE/USDT 30-day liquidation map shows cumulative short liquidation leverage at approximately $33 million compared to roughly $23 million on the long side.

Short leverage clusters build significantly above the $34 range, creating potential fuel for a short squeeze if the Hyperliquid price pushes through that zone.

The Smart Money Index, which tracks the positioning of informed traders, on the technical chart, adds further confirmation for what the Nansen AI highlighted. It crossed above the signal line around Feb. 28, coinciding with the price acceleration. During the late January rally, this same indicator turned down right as sellers rejected HYPE at $43. This time, the indicator is pointing up again, though it still needs to clear the nearest horizontal resistance to confirm stronger momentum.

The divide is clear: smart money is accumulating HYPE while retail leans short. That setup, combined with the liquidation clusters above the price, has historically preceded sharp upward moves in crypto markets. And the technical levels above map out exactly where the next legs could go.

HYPE Price Targets $62 for a New All-Time High

The Hyperliquid price rally gained further technical significance when HYPE crossed and reclaimed the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), a trend-following indicator. The last time this reclaim happened was in late January. HYPE subsequently rallied approximately 81% to $43 before sellers forced a correction.

Despite the current move measuring 31% from the swing low, HYPE is only about 15% above the 20-day EMA level itself. In the January instance, the token had moved much further above its EMA at the equivalent stage before accelerating into the full 81% rally. This suggests the current move may still be in its early stages if the pattern repeats.

Technical extension levels show that the immediate resistance sits near $34. It is also the zone where short liquidation leverage begins stacking heavily, making it the first real test. A break above $34 could trigger cascading short liquidations that accelerate the move.

The $39 represents one of the higher levels, followed by $43. Beyond $43, the technical extension reaches $48 and $62, which would represent a new all-time high, surpassing the September 2025 peak of over $59. From the current price near $32, that represents roughly 90% upside.

On the downside, losing $30 would weaken the bullish structure. A drop below $25 would invalidate the setup entirely, regardless of how strong the TradFi burn flywheel remains.

BNB gets institutional boost from YZi Labs amid broader market price weakness.
This $100 million infusion arrives as BNB price holds near $630
Commitment highlights institutional faith in BNB’s utility and yield potential.

BNB price hovers near $630 as investor jitters mount amid escalating US/Israel-Iran tensions.

The negative sentiment across crypto and risk assets aside, YZi Labs has announced a fresh $100 million commitment to Hash Global’s BNB Holdings Fund.

Can this move help the bulls hold onto gains?

BNB gets institutional boost

YZi Labs, formerly Binance Labs, announced a $100 million strategic investment into Hash Global’s BNB Holdings Fund, building on prior support for the compliant yield vehicle launched in June 2025.

Ella Zhang, Head of YZi Labs, highlighted BNB as a “foundational utility asset with attractive yield, powering the future of financial infrastructure,” inviting traditional capital for its structural returns and growth.

The fund has delivered strong performance, posting 32.5% returns since inception through diversified revenue streams including BNB price appreciation, launchpad allocations, airdrops, and custody yields, with bi-weekly liquidity for investors.

This move signals deepening institutional adoption, amid continued interest from private wealth platforms and high-net-worth individuals.

Despite price weakness and notable ecosystem downsides, BNB looks to be attracting investment from individuals seeking regulated exposure to the token.

KK, founder of Hash Global, noted:

“BNB’s institutionalization should not be viewed merely as portfolio inclusion, but as a structural alignment between capital and ecosystem development. The ecosystem co-building model is the defining feature that differentiates BNB from other digital assets.”

BNB price outlook

Current market data shows BNB trading around $629, down 3% in the last 24 hours.

Prices are also down in the past week and month, but BNB has held steady within this range since dipping from above $700 in February.

Downtrend weakness remains as Bitcoin struggles to break $70,000 amid headwinds from the intensifying US/Israel-Iran conflict.

With reports of further strikes and risks of the conflict spilling across the region, cryptocurrencies could dip even further. On Tuesday, BNB dropped from highs of $651 amid such fresh derisking.

If extreme fear grips sentiment, with odds rising of a deeper war, prices may retest support around $550. Lower demand reload zones lie in the $450-$500 range.

However, if bulls hold onto gains above immediate support, resilience could see prices bounce higher.

BNB’s ecosystem strength, including BNB Chain’s growing daily transactions, real-world asset adoption and investment inflows, provides a buffer.

The institutional inflows could counter prevailing macro fears and help buyers keep bears off.

Bitcoin drops below $66K as Middle East tensions spark volatility.
$6.39 billion ETF outflows show weakening institutional crypto demand.
BTC swings between $63K–$65K; traders watch support and rate policy.

Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped below the $66,000 mark as global markets react to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The rising conflict between Iran, the US, and Israel has prompted a wave of uncertainty that is affecting risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin, in particular, is showing sharp intraday swings in response to news developments.

Early trading saw BTC fall as low as $63,000 before it recovered to above $65,000.

This volatility reflects a mix of geopolitical fear and active liquidations in the derivatives market, with more than $130 million in long positions being forced to close and amplifying the downward pressure on the cryptocurrency.

The US, Israel, Iran war has sent shockwaves across markets

The current situation in the Middle East has made investors jittery.

Traditionally, Bitcoin has sometimes been viewed as a hedge during global crises, but recent behaviour shows it acting more like a risk asset.

Notably, Bitcoin’s price has been moving in close correlation with equities, particularly major stock indices, rather than holding steady in turbulent times.

Gold and oil, however, have seen upward movements, with oil prices surging amid anticipation of supply disruptions.

The price of Gold has also climbed modestly, reflecting its traditional safe-haven status.

These shifts indicate that money is flowing away from riskier assets like Bitcoin and toward instruments perceived as more stable during geopolitical stress.

Long-term BTC holders, however, are showing resilience.

After the initial sell-off, many investors took the opportunity to buy at lower levels, which contributed to a partial recovery.

This has prevented Bitcoin from falling as sharply as some other risk assets, demonstrating that there is still significant support at levels around $65,000.

Institutional demand weakens

US-listed spot bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds have recorded sustained outflows over the past four months, pointing to a sharp cooling in institutional participation in digital assets.

Investors withdrew $6.39 billion from bitcoin ETFs during the period, the longest continuous monthly decline since the products launched in January 2024, according to SoSoValue data.

Ether ETFs also saw $2.76 billion in outflows.

The retreat coincided with a steep fall in token prices, with bitcoin dropping from above $126,000 in early October, while ether has fallen more than 60% from its August highs near $4,950.

Spot ETFs had previously served as a visible channel for institutional inflows after their debut and following pro-crypto political developments in 2024.

However, demand weakened after the October market downturn, reportedly linked to pricing inefficiencies on offshore exchange Binance.

Although recent sessions have seen intermittent inflows, analysts say a consistent return of capital is required for a durable recovery.

What this means for Bitcoin going forward

Traders should expect more volatility in the short term since Bitcoin is sensitive to headlines, and any further escalation in the Middle East could trigger additional sharp movements.

Traders should keep a close eye on the technical support level near $63,000, while resistance around $68,000 to $70,000 remains a key target for recovery.

Also, besides the Middle East war, monetary policy may also play a role in the next BTC price movements.

If central banks respond to the conflict with interest rate adjustments or liquidity measures, Bitcoin could benefit indirectly.

Historical trends suggest that geopolitical crises followed by rate cuts or monetary easing often support risk assets, and cryptocurrencies could be no exception.

With a few hours still to go, Bitcoin BTC$64,061.41 is on track to post its worst losing streak since 2018, with February about to mark a fifth consecutive monthly decline.

The run of losses would be the longest since that 2018–2019 bear market and follows what has already been bitcoin’s worst first 50-day start to a year on record, leaving BTC down more than 25% year to date and on course for its first-ever back-to-back January and February declines.

More? The bitcoin-to-gold ratio fell to 12.288 ounces in February, marking a 70% drawdown over the last 14 months.

Bitcoin is also about to close out its worst month since June 2022 as the collapse of Terra-Luna that year sent the price plunging by about one-third. With bitcoin currently at about $66,000, the decline this February stands at more than 16%.

But some analysts argue that comparing the current stretch to 2018 may be oversimplifying what’s unfolding.

Repricing within a structural regime shift

“What we’re seeing isn’t just weakness. It’s repricing inside a structural regime shift,” Mati Greenspan, senior eToro market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, told CoinDesk.

He believes that while tariffs, ETF flows and macro fears may explain the timing of the selloff, they don’t explain the deeper move, which he sees as a broader recalibration in how markets value risk assets in an era of elevated uncertainty.

Bitcoin is also approaching a fifth straight weekly decline, a streak last seen between March and May 2022.

Geopolitical tensions have strengthened the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices, tightening financial conditions and weighing on risk assets.

Yet, this downturn stands out for another reason: bitcoin’s uneven relationship with equities. While U.S. stocks have remained relatively resilient, BTC has sharply underperformed, marking an unusual period of instability in its traditional risk-asset correlation.

Confronting arguments

“Bitcoin doesn’t have a narrative right now, and it’s getting squeezed from both sides,” Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, said in an email to CoinDesk.

Randin pointed to mounting macro pressure, including $3.8 billion in ETF outflows over the past five weeks, escalating tariff tensions and a Federal Reserve that has yet to signal imminent rate cuts.

While gold has attracted safe-haven flows and equities have ridden AI momentum, bitcoin has lagged. “Gold is up roughly 48% since September while bitcoin has fallen about 41% over the same period,” Randin said, explaining that the divergence shows investors are still treating BTC as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than digital gold.

The correlation picture has been volatile. “The 20-day BTC-Nasdaq correlation swung from -0.68 to +0.72 between early and mid-February. That’s not decorrelation, that’s instability,” Randin said. “When the risk-on trade is working, and one asset gets left behind, that’s usually weakness, not strength.”

The narrative “hasn’t changed since 2009. It is a global, neutral alternative to debt-based fiat systems,” according to Greenspan.

Decorrelations are not random

“When correlations break during regime shifts, it’s usually not random. It’s early repricing,” Greenspan said. “If equities are still being treated as cyclical growth exposure while bitcoin starts trading more like a sovereign hedge, that divergence is structurally bullish.”

Despite the scale of the drawdown, Randin cautioned against assuming the correction is over.

“Bitcoin’s now declined 52% from the October highs,” he said. “That sounds like a lot, but when you look at prior bear markets where we’ve seen drawdowns of 80% or more, we could realistically be only halfway through this correction.”

He added that while the weekly relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to its lowest reading in bitcoin’s history and accumulator addresses have absorbed roughly 372,000 BTC since late December, signals often associated with cycle bottoms, similar conditions in past downturns were followed by another 30% to 40% drop before a definitive low formed.

Greenspan, however, said sentiment may already reflect much of the pessimism. “When sentiment gets this uniformly negative while long-term fundamentals remain intact, reversals tend to be sharp,” he said.

Until bitcoin can reclaim the $68,000–$72,000 zone, Randin said, “I’d expect this streak to grind on rather than break cleanly.” He identified $60,000 as a key near-term support level, with the 200-week moving average near $58,500 just below it.

“The losing streak narrative focuses on five months,” Greenspan added. “The structural story spans decades.”

Bitcoin BTC$68,351.59 snapped back near $69,000 on Wednesday, rallying more than 10% from Tuesday’s low as crypto markets staged a broad relief rally after a prolonged stretch of pessimism.

Ethereum’s ether (ETH), DOGE$0.1003, native tokens of Solana (SOL) and ADA$0.2952 all posted double-digit gains, extending a move that caught many traders leaning the wrong way.

Digital asset stocks, battered lower in the past months amid falling crypto prices, also enjoyed a relief rally. Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) surged 34% after its earnings report, while crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) jumped 14%. Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, climbed 9%, and the ether treasury firm BitMine advanced 12%.

The broad-based rally offered a welcome reprieve after weeks of persistent selling pressure and dread of a next leg lower.

Still, analysts cautioned that despite the sharp bounce across tokens and equities, crypto markets are not out of the woods yet, with key resistance levels and macro risks still looming.

While there was no immediate catalyst behind the Wednesday move, extreme fear and bearish positioning across crypto markets were prime conditions for a violent countertrend advance, according to Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group.

“Crypto assets have been heavily pressured in recent months and overdue for a technical bounce,” he wrote. “The market had built up a meaningful tactical short bias, leaving it vulnerable to sharp squeezes on limited headlines.”

Still, Kruger cautioned against calling the rebound the start of a durable uptrend yet.

“Given the abrupt nature of the rally and the absence of a clear trigger — particularly against the backdrop of thinner liquidity conditions — the advance should be treated with caution,” he said.

Chasing the rally

Joshua Lim, global co-head of markets at FalconX, said his desk is seeing heavy demand for bullish bets on ether in the options market. Specifically, traders are buying call options and call spreads in the $2,000–$2,200 range over the next two to three weeks, seeking to profit from further near-term upside.

Lim added that some funds are also “chasing this rally” by rotating into higher-volatility altcoins and using options to amplify potential gains — a sign that risk appetite has picked up quickly after the recent rebound.

Adding some complexity, roughly 115,000 BTC options worth $7.49 billion will expire Friday at month-end. The so-called “max pain” — the price level where the largest number of options expire worthless — currently is at around $75,000, Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere noted. The “max pain” point can sometimes act as a magnetic level into expiry, though dealer positioning appears weak, he said.

“Fundamental indicators still remain unconvincing that this strength will see much follow through,” De Maere added.

Levels to watch

Technically, bitcoin faces stiff resistance in the $70,000 and $72,000 zone, where recent rallies have stalled as sellers stepped in. Overcoming those levels would be the first challenge in turning the bounce into a durable move higher.

Bitfinex analysts also pointed to $78,000, where the “True Market Mean,” an onchain valuation metric to estimate bitcoin’s fair value based on actual capital flows into the network, currently sits.

That level must be reclaimed on a sustained weekly basis before the structural picture improves, Bitfinex analysts said.

Key takeaways:

ETH futures liquidations reached $224 million after a 9% price drop, while the network’s onchain activity fell to a 12-month low.

ETH’s high correlation with Bitcoin and massive outflows from exchange-traded funds suggest further downside risk for Ether price.

Ether (ETH) plunged to $1,800 on Tuesday, wiping out $224 million in leveraged bullish positions over 48 hours. This 14% price slide over the last 10 days has left top traders defensive. Options and futures data, sluggish onchain activity, and steady outflows from Ether spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) all point to a shaky floor at $1,800.

After demand for put (sell) and call (buy) options stayed fairly balanced from Monday through Saturday, things shifted quickly on Tuesday. The ETH put-to-call volume premium jumped to 2.2x, showing a sudden scramble for downside protection. While some might have sold puts to bet on a price bounce, the broader market seems to be bracing for more volatility.

The options delta skew (put-call) sat at 18% on Tuesday, meaning puts were trading at a clear premium. This lopsided demand shows that hedging is the priority right now. There is a real lack of confidence here, even with ETH sitting 63% below its all-time high. A lot of this frustration comes down to some pretty weak onchain numbers.

The total value locked (TVL) on Ethereum has slipped to $51 billion, which is the lowest level seen since May 2025. With fewer deposits hitting decentralized applications (DApps), network fees have taken a hit to $13.7 million over the last 30 days. That is a far cry from the $33 million average seen in late 2025. Traders are worried that ETH demand for data processing won’t return anytime soon.

Even though it was expected, the recent $7 million in ETH sales linked to Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin haven’t helped the mood. The Ethereum co-founder earmarked ETH 16,384 of his personal holdings in January as donations to fund privacy-focused technologies, open source hardware and secure, verifiable software systems. Still, the optics of the move added another layer of bearish pressure to an already shaky week.

Outflows from Ether ETFs have only made things worse for investor sentiment. Usually, this kind of movement means institutional players are losing interest.

Related: Longest Ether dip since 2022 ignored by whales–What’s next for ETH?

The US-listed Ether ETFs have seen $405 million in net outflows since Feb. 11, which has pushed total assets under management down to $12.4 billion. This shift happened right as gold prices climbed above $5,150. In fact, gold ETFs pulled in $822 million in the week ending Feb. 20, according to gold.org. 

Ether’s weak onchain and derivatives data is not a guaranteed death sentence. However, the fact that whales and market makers seem to be bracing for more downside definitely fuels the bearish mood. Ether’s price is also stuck to Bitcoin (BTC) right now as the assets’ 20-day correlation has stayed above 95% for the last three weeks.

The ETH drop to $1,800 has created a bit of a loop, where traders are still guessing at what is really driving this crypto bear market. That uncertainty is forcing traders to sell at a loss, and the situation may not change while professional traders display fear. Until those derivatives metrics stabilize, the odds of ETH sliding further are still on the table.